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AI Timelines - Footnote 37

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states that 95% AI R&D automation corresponds to AI systems achieving a 14-year "time horizon" on METR's coding task suite. The source does not mention this specific percentage or time horizon. The claim mentions that the benchmark measures the length of tasks an AI can complete with 80% reliability. The source does not mention this specific reliability percentage.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

metr.org/notes/2026-02-10-simpler-ai-timelines-model/(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: <EntityLink id="metr">METR</EntityLink> researcher Thomas Kwa's 2026 model defines AI R&D automation as a logistic function in log compute, capturing the fraction of AI R&D labor that AI systems can r…

Note: The claim states that 95% AI R&D automation corresponds to AI systems achieving a 14-year "time horizon" on METR's coding task suite. The source does not mention this specific percentage or time horizon. The claim mentions that the benchmark measures the length of tasks an AI can complete with 80% reliability. The source does not mention this specific reliability percentage.

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Record ID: page:ai-timelines:fn37