Citation

AI Timelines - Footnote 38

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states the model is from 2026, but the source was published in 2026 and refers to the model in the present tense. The claim states 95% AI R&D automation corresponds to AI systems achieving a 14-year "time horizon" on METR's coding task suite, but the source states that 95% AI R&D automation corresponds to a time horizon of 14 years, which is less than the median of 125 years, and should give timelines before 2045 or so.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.lesswrong.com/posts/uy6B5rEPvcwi55cBK/research-note-a-simpler-ai-timelines-model-predicts-99-ai-r(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: <EntityLink id="metr">METR</EntityLink> researcher Thomas Kwa's 2026 model defines AI R&D automation as a logistic function in log compute, capturing the fraction of AI R&D labor that AI systems can r…

Note: The claim states the model is from 2026, but the source was published in 2026 and refers to the model in the present tense. The claim states 95% AI R&D automation corresponds to AI systems achieving a 14-year "time horizon" on METR's coding task suite, but the source states that 95% AI R&D automation corresponds to a time horizon of 14 years, which is less than the median of 125 years, and should give timelines before 2045 or so.

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