All Source Checks
partial90% confidence
1 evidence check
Last checked: 4/3/2026
The current median estimate is May 2040, not December 2041. The number of forecasters is 169, not 168.
Evidence — 1 source, 1 check
partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
Found: A separate Metaculus question on transformative AI shows a current median estimate of December 2041, drawn from 168 forecasters.
Note: The current median estimate is May 2040, not December 2041. The number of forecasters is 169, not 168.
Debug info
Record type: citation
Record ID: page:ai-timelines:fn44