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AI Timelines - Footnote 46

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partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim mentions an aggregated AGI timeline dashboard, but the source only mentions individual questions on Metaculus, Manifold Markets, and Kalshi. The source does not explicitly state that observers attribute the differing resolution criteria to differing operationalizations of AGI rather than genuine disagreement about underlying probabilities, although it does imply this.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

forecastingaifutures.substack.com/p/forecasting-agi-insights-from-prediction-markets(1 check)
partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
Found: An aggregated AGI timeline dashboard drawing from multiple Metaculus questions, as well as Manifold Markets and Kalshi, tracks combined forecasts for AGI arrival across several operationalizations of …

Note: The claim mentions an aggregated AGI timeline dashboard, but the source only mentions individual questions on Metaculus, Manifold Markets, and Kalshi. The source does not explicitly state that observers attribute the differing resolution criteria to differing operationalizations of AGI rather than genuine disagreement about underlying probabilities, although it does imply this.

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Record ID: page:ai-timelines:fn46