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AI Timelines - Footnote 9

partial90% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states 'approximately 4% probability of AGI by 2036', but the source states 'pr(AGI by 2036) = 4%' for a specific scenario, not as a central estimate. The claim states 'with a preferred range of 1-10%', but the source states 'My central estimate is about 8%, but other parameter choices I find plausible yield results anywhere from 1% to 18%.'

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.openphilanthropy.org/research/semi-informative-priors-over-ai-timelines/(1 check)

partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: His 2021 analysis suggested a central estimate of approximately 4% probability of AGI by 2036, with a preferred range of 1-10%.

Note: The claim states 'approximately 4% probability of AGI by 2036', but the source states 'pr(AGI by 2036) = 4%' for a specific scenario, not as a central estimate. The claim states 'with a preferred range of 1-10%', but the source states 'My central estimate is about 8%, but other parameter choices I find plausible yield results anywhere from 1% to 18%.'

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