Citation

Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 3

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states that the Good Judgment Project won outright with performance 35-72% better than rival teams and more than 30% better than intelligence community analysts. The source only states that the Good Judgment Project emerged as the clear winner of the tournament. The claim states that Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers are from the University of Pennsylvania. The source states that the Good Judgment Project was led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

goodjudgment.substack.com/p/a-primer-on-good-judgment-inc-and(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: Founded by <EntityLink id="philip-tetlock">Philip Tetlock</EntityLink> and Barbara Mellers of the University of Pennsylvania, Good Judgment pioneered methods for crowd-sourced forecasting that combine…

Note: The claim states that the Good Judgment Project won outright with performance 35-72% better than rival teams and more than 30% better than intelligence community analysts. The source only states that the Good Judgment Project emerged as the clear winner of the tournament. The claim states that Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers are from the University of Pennsylvania. The source states that the Good Judgment Project was led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania.

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Record type: citation

Record ID: page:good-judgment:fn3