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Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 37

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Last checked: 4/3/2026

The source does not mention the ACE tournament, teams of 12 superforecasters outperforming larger groups of regular forecasters, or the typical assignment of approximately 40 superforecasters to each client question.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

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unverifiable20%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: During the ACE tournament, teams of 12 superforecasters consistently outperformed larger groups of regular forecasters, suggesting that high-skill aggregation matters more than crowd size. Good Judgme…

Note: The source does not mention the ACE tournament, teams of 12 superforecasters outperforming larger groups of regular forecasters, or the typical assignment of approximately 40 superforecasters to each client question.

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