Citation

Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 40

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states 'more than 50% improvement over control groups', but the source states 'more than 60%'. The claim states '400 days in advance as accurately as other forecasters could predict them at 150 days out', but the source states 'superforecasters predicting events 300 days in the future were more accurate than regular forecasters predicting events 100 days in the future' and 'superforecasters could assign probabilities 400 days out about as well as regular people could about eighty days out.'

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

aiimpacts.org/evidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-judgment-project/(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: During the IARPA ACE tournament (2011-2015), the Good Judgment Project achieved more than 50% improvement over control groups—the largest effect in the forecasting literature at that time. Superforeca…

Note: The claim states 'more than 50% improvement over control groups', but the source states 'more than 60%'. The claim states '400 days in advance as accurately as other forecasters could predict them at 150 days out', but the source states 'superforecasters predicting events 300 days in the future were more accurate than regular forecasters predicting events 100 days in the future' and 'superforecasters could assign probabilities 400 days out about as well as regular people could about eighty days out.'

Debug info

Record type: citation

Record ID: page:good-judgment:fn40