Citation

Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 41

partial90% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states the IARPA ACE tournament was from 2011-2015, but the source does not specify the years of the tournament. The claim states the Good Judgment Project achieved more than 50% improvement over control groups, but the source attributes this to Team Good Judgment.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/(1 check)

partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: During the IARPA ACE tournament (2011-2015), the Good Judgment Project achieved more than 50% improvement over control groups—the largest effect in the forecasting literature at that time. Superforeca…

Note: The claim states the IARPA ACE tournament was from 2011-2015, but the source does not specify the years of the tournament. The claim states the Good Judgment Project achieved more than 50% improvement over control groups, but the source attributes this to Team Good Judgment.

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Record type: citation

Record ID: page:good-judgment:fn41