Citation

Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 46

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The source states that 670 forecasting questions were posed to the Superforecasters, not 554 questions resolved. The source does not mention that the organization reports significantly lower Brier scores compared to peer forecasters.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: As of September 2023, Good Judgment had resolved over 554 questions since 2015, with superforecasters placing the highest probability on the correct outcome across the majority of forecasting days. Th…

Note: The source states that 670 forecasting questions were posed to the Superforecasters, not 554 questions resolved. The source does not mention that the organization reports significantly lower Brier scores compared to peer forecasters.

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