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Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 74

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Last checked: 4/3/2026

The source does not contain any information about Good Judgment's track record, superforecasters outperforming prediction markets or intelligence analysts, or forecasting accuracy on geopolitical questions translating to sound judgment on complex strategic questions like AI risk trajectories or optimal intervention strategies.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4HLmE5eTHBsC3FDt3/how-can-good-generalist-judgment-be-differentiated-fromEA Funds(1 check)
unverifiable0%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
Found: The EA community has also debated whether good judgment and forecasting skill represent distinct capabilities. Good Judgment's track record—with superforecasters outperforming prediction markets by 15…

Note: The source does not contain any information about Good Judgment's track record, superforecasters outperforming prediction markets or intelligence analysts, or forecasting accuracy on geopolitical questions translating to sound judgment on complex strategic questions like AI risk trajectories or optimal intervention strategies.

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Record ID: page:good-judgment:fn74