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Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 75

partial90% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states that superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%, but the source says teams of superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%. The claim states that superforecasters outperformed intelligence analysts by 25-30%, but the source says that the Good Judgment Project outperformed a prediction market inside the intelligence community by 25-30%.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/W94KjunX3hXAtZvXJ/evidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-1EA Funds(1 check)
partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
Found: The EA community has also debated whether good judgment and forecasting skill represent distinct capabilities. Good Judgment's track record—with superforecasters outperforming prediction markets by 15…

Note: The claim states that superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%, but the source says teams of superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%. The claim states that superforecasters outperformed intelligence analysts by 25-30%, but the source says that the Good Judgment Project outperformed a prediction market inside the intelligence community by 25-30%.

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Record type: citation

Record ID: page:good-judgment:fn75