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Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 77

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confirmed100% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

Migrated from citation_quotes. Original verdict: accurate

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

joecarlsmith.com/2023/10/18/superforecasting-the-premises-in-is-power-seeking-ai-an-existential-risk/(1 check)

confirmed100%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: While the organization has demonstrated exceptional accuracy on questions with clear resolution criteria and relatively short time horizons (typically under 2 years), AI safety involves longer timefra…

Note: Migrated from citation_quotes accuracy check. Original verdict: accurate

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