Citation

Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 78

partial90% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The sample size in the claim is slightly off (195 vs 194).

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7333631/(1 check)

partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: Research attempting to replicate the superforecasting hypothesis found that with a sample of only 195 participants and identification periods of less than a year, no superforecasters were identified. …

Note: The sample size in the claim is slightly off (195 vs 194).

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