Citation

Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 9

contradicted60% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

WRONG NUMBERS: The source does not mention 1 million forecasts or 500 questions. FABRICATED DETAILS: The source does not mention Venezuelan gas subsidies or North Korean politics. MISLEADING PARAPHRASE: The claim implies that the project as a whole recruited forecasters, but the source only mentions Jean-Pierre Beugoms being recruited.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

goodjudgment.com/about/our-team/superforecaster-profiles/jean-pierre-beugoms/(1 check)

contradicted60%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: During its first year in 2011, the project recruited forecasters like Jean-Pierre Beugoms and generated over 1 million forecasts across 500 questions ranging from Venezuelan gas subsidies to North Kor…

Note: WRONG NUMBERS: The source does not mention 1 million forecasts or 500 questions. FABRICATED DETAILS: The source does not mention Venezuelan gas subsidies or North Korean politics. MISLEADING PARAPHRASE: The claim implies that the project as a whole recruited forecasters, but the source only mentions Jean-Pierre Beugoms being recruited.

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Record type: citation

Record ID: page:good-judgment:fn9