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Gwern Branwen - Footnote 22

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states that the discriminant analysis correctly predicted 130/159 agent classifications, but the source does not provide these specific numbers. The claim states that fraud is the worst criticism because it changes all decisions, but the source says that there is no decision whatsoever which is made better by using faked data. The claim states that Gwern admits his own critiques aren't always fully correct, but the source says that he could not honestly say that he has always been right or that he did not occasionally ‘gild the lily’ a little.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
Found: In analyzing causality assessments, Gwern critiques quantitative applications of Bradford Hill criteria, noting that one study's discriminant analysis correctly predicted 130/159 (81.8%) agent classif

Note: The claim states that the discriminant analysis correctly predicted 130/159 agent classifications, but the source does not provide these specific numbers. The claim states that fraud is the worst criticism because it changes all decisions, but the source says that there is no decision whatsoever which is made better by using faked data. The claim states that Gwern admits his own critiques aren't always fully correct, but the source says that he could not honestly say that he has always been right or that he did not occasionally ‘gild the lily’ a little.

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Record type: citation

Record ID: page:gwern:fn22

Source Check: Gwern Branwen - Footnote 22 | Longterm Wiki