Citation

Leopold Aschenbrenner - Footnote 33

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states a 100,000x increase in effective compute between 2024 and 2027, but the source projects a ~3-6 OOMs increase, which translates to a 1,000x to 1,000,000x increase. The claim mentions 2025-26 for AI surpassing college graduates, but the source does not specify this timeframe. The claim mentions superintelligence emerging by the end of the decade, but the source suggests it could emerge ~1 year after AGI, which is projected around 2027.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zmRTWsYZ4ifQKrX26/summary-of-situational-awareness-the-decade-ahead EA Funds(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: According to Aschenbrenner, these trends combine to project a 100,000x increase in effective compute between 2024 and 2027. He argues that by 2025-26, AI systems will surpass college graduates on many…

Note: The claim states a 100,000x increase in effective compute between 2024 and 2027, but the source projects a ~3-6 OOMs increase, which translates to a 1,000x to 1,000,000x increase. The claim mentions 2025-26 for AI surpassing college graduates, but the source does not specify this timeframe. The claim mentions superintelligence emerging by the end of the decade, but the source suggests it could emerge ~1 year after AGI, which is projected around 2027.

Debug info

Record type: citation

Record ID: page:leopold-aschenbrenner:fn33