Citation

Philip Tetlock - Footnote 10

partial80% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim states the tournament was from 2011-2015, but the source only says it was a 'four-year geopolitical forecasting tournament' without specifying the exact years. The claim states that the tournament involved 'thousands of forecasters making over one million predictions', but the source does not provide specific numbers for the number of forecasters or predictions made.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

pikprofessors.upenn.edu/meet-the-professors/philip-tetlock(1 check)

partial80%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: The Good Judgment Project won a four-year IARPA-sponsored forecasting tournament (2011-2015) involving thousands of forecasters making over one million predictions on geopolitical events.

Note: The claim states the tournament was from 2011-2015, but the source only says it was a 'four-year geopolitical forecasting tournament' without specifying the exact years. The claim states that the tournament involved 'thousands of forecasters making over one million predictions', but the source does not provide specific numbers for the number of forecasters or predictions made.

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Record type: citation

Record ID: page:philip-tetlock:fn10