Citation

Philip Tetlock - Footnote 13

contradicted70% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

WRONG NUMBERS: The claim states that superforecasters exceeded intelligence analysts by 60-85%, but the source does not provide these specific numbers.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-how-to-win-at-forecasting(1 check)

contradicted70%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: The project identified "superforecasters"—ordinary citizens whose accuracy exceeded intelligence analysts with classified information access by 60-85%.

Note: WRONG NUMBERS: The claim states that superforecasters exceeded intelligence analysts by 60-85%, but the source does not provide these specific numbers.

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