Citation

Philip Tetlock - Footnote 38

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The source does not explicitly state that superforecasters were 'approximately 60-85% more accurate than average forecasters'. It only mentions that they are 'far more accurate than I would have ever supposed possible'. The source does not explicitly state that superforecasters demonstrated the ability to distinguish '10-15 degrees of uncertainty'. It does mention that they are skillful at 'finding information, synthesizing it, and applying it, and then updating the response to new information.'

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-how-to-win-at-forecasting(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: According to analysis of the project's results, superforecasters were approximately 60-85% more accurate than average forecasters and demonstrated the ability to distinguish 10-15 degrees of uncertain…

Note: The source does not explicitly state that superforecasters were 'approximately 60-85% more accurate than average forecasters'. It only mentions that they are 'far more accurate than I would have ever supposed possible'. The source does not explicitly state that superforecasters demonstrated the ability to distinguish '10-15 degrees of uncertainty'. It does mention that they are skillful at 'finding information, synthesizing it, and applying it, and then updating the response to new information.'

Debug info

Record type: citation

Record ID: page:philip-tetlock:fn38