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Citation
Philip Tetlock - Footnote 46
partial85% confidence
1 evidence check
Last checked: 4/3/2026
The source does not explicitly state that foxes only 'modestly' exceeded simple benchmarks. It says they sometimes beat extrapolation algorithms, but not by a wide margin. The claim mentions 'extrapolation algorithms' as a benchmark, while the source mentions 'simple extrapolation algorithms'.
Evidence — 1 source, 1 check
partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
Found: However, early critiques noted that while foxes outperformed hedgehogs, they still only modestly exceeded simple benchmarks like extrapolation algorithms, rather than achieving substantial superiority…
Note: The source does not explicitly state that foxes only 'modestly' exceeded simple benchmarks. It says they sometimes beat extrapolation algorithms, but not by a wide margin. The claim mentions 'extrapolation algorithms' as a benchmark, while the source mentions 'simple extrapolation algorithms'.
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Record type: citation
Record ID: page:philip-tetlock:fn46