Citation

Philip Tetlock - Footnote 52

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The source mentions weighted averaging, but refers to it as a method of aggregating individual forecasts, not of adjusting crowd predictions to account for shared information. The source mentions Bayesian belief adjustment, but not Bayesian question clusters.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-how-to-win-at-forecasting(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: The project developed techniques including extremizing weighted averages (adjusting crowd predictions to account for shared information) and Bayesian question clusters (breaking complex forecasts into…

Note: The source mentions weighted averaging, but refers to it as a method of aggregating individual forecasts, not of adjusting crowd predictions to account for shared information. The source mentions Bayesian belief adjustment, but not Bayesian question clusters.

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