Citation

Philip Tetlock - Footnote 72

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim mentions 'systematic post-mortems', but the source only mentions a 'post-mortem piece on 2016 election forecasts co-authored by Dr. Scoblic'. This is not necessarily 'systematic'. The claim mentions 'EA priorities', but the source does not explicitly mention 'EA priorities'. It does mention 'global catastrophic risks', which are related to EA priorities.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.founderspledge.com/research/prof-philip-tetlocks-forecasting-research(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: His work on identifying cognitive biases, tracking prediction accuracy, and conducting systematic post-mortems provides methodological tools relevant to assessing low-probability, high-impact scenario…

Note: The claim mentions 'systematic post-mortems', but the source only mentions a 'post-mortem piece on 2016 election forecasts co-authored by Dr. Scoblic'. This is not necessarily 'systematic'. The claim mentions 'EA priorities', but the source does not explicitly mention 'EA priorities'. It does mention 'global catastrophic risks', which are related to EA priorities.

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Record type: citation

Record ID: page:philip-tetlock:fn72