Citation

Philip Tetlock - Footnote 75

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The source states that hedgehogs would have been beaten by the chimp, not that they performed worse than basic models. The source states that simple extrapolation algorithms performed better than the average expert, not basic models. The source does not mention that the practical significance of foxes' advantage over simple algorithms remains debated.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/11/dan-gardner-philip-tetlock/overcoming-our-aversion-acknowledging-our-ignorance(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: Hedgehogs performed worse than basic models—in some tests, slightly below random chance—but the practical significance of foxes' advantage over simple algorithms remains debated.

Note: The source states that hedgehogs would have been beaten by the chimp, not that they performed worse than basic models. The source states that simple extrapolation algorithms performed better than the average expert, not basic models. The source does not mention that the practical significance of foxes' advantage over simple algorithms remains debated.

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