Citation

Philip Tetlock - Footnote 8

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The source states that the findings were published in the 2005 book, but does not explicitly state that the research culminated in the book. The source does not mention Berkeley undergraduates. The source does not mention that experts were compared to "dart-throwing chimpanzees".

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.founderspledge.com/research/prof-philip-tetlocks-forecasting-research(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: This research culminated in his landmark 2005 book *Expert Political Judgment*, which documented that experts with access to classified information performed no better than Berkeley undergraduates or …

Note: The source states that the findings were published in the 2005 book, but does not explicitly state that the research culminated in the book. The source does not mention Berkeley undergraduates. The source does not mention that experts were compared to "dart-throwing chimpanzees".

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Record type: citation

Record ID: page:philip-tetlock:fn8