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Philip Tetlock - Footnote 97

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim that superforecasters were '30% more accurate on average than futures markets' is not directly supported by the source. The source only states that superforecasters 'continued to beat the market so far this year when it comes to anticipating Fed decisions'. The claim mentions 'the continued relevance of Tetlock's forecasting methods', but the source does not explicitly mention this.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
Found: According to the *Financial Times* in October 2025, superforecasters associated with the Good Judgment Project proved 30% more accurate on average than futures markets and continued to beat market pre

Note: The claim that superforecasters were '30% more accurate on average than futures markets' is not directly supported by the source. The source only states that superforecasters 'continued to beat the market so far this year when it comes to anticipating Fed decisions'. The claim mentions 'the continued relevance of Tetlock's forecasting methods', but the source does not explicitly mention this.

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Record type: citation

Record ID: page:philip-tetlock:fn97

Source Check: Philip Tetlock - Footnote 97 | Longterm Wiki