Citation

Polymarket - Footnote 48

partial80% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The claim mentions 'ETH Zürich thesis analyzing over 2 million buy/sell transactions across 9,026 markets' but the source does not mention the specific details of the thesis, such as the university or the number of transactions and markets analyzed. The source only mentions the titles, authors, and abstracts of the papers. The claim states 'average Brier score of approximately 0.15, indicating strong accuracy' but the source does not mention the Brier score or the level of accuracy. The claim refers to the '2024 presidential election' but the source refers to the '2024 election cycle'.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-five-new-academic-papers-say-prediction-markets(1 check)

partial80%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: A comprehensive ETH Zürich thesis analyzing over 2 million buy/sell transactions across 9,026 markets found an average Brier score of approximately 0.15, indicating strong accuracy, though with no cle…

Note: The claim mentions 'ETH Zürich thesis analyzing over 2 million buy/sell transactions across 9,026 markets' but the source does not mention the specific details of the thesis, such as the university or the number of transactions and markets analyzed. The source only mentions the titles, authors, and abstracts of the papers. The claim states 'average Brier score of approximately 0.15, indicating strong accuracy' but the source does not mention the Brier score or the level of accuracy. The claim refers to the '2024 presidential election' but the source refers to the '2024 election cycle'.

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Record ID: page:polymarket:fn48