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Citation
Polymarket - Footnote 50
partial85% confidence
1 evidence check
Last checked: 4/3/2026
The source does not state that the platform tends to overestimate probabilities by approximately 2 points across ranges. It provides accuracy percentages at different timeframes before market resolution. The claim mentions 'NFL games' as an event type, but the source refers to 'sports' in general.
Evidence — 1 source, 1 check
partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
Found: However, accuracy limitations exist for long-term predictions due to speculation and external variables, with the platform tending to overestimate probabilities by approximately 2 points across ranges…
Note: The source does not state that the platform tends to overestimate probabilities by approximately 2 points across ranges. It provides accuracy percentages at different timeframes before market resolution. The claim mentions 'NFL games' as an event type, but the source refers to 'sports' in general.
Debug info
Record type: citation
Record ID: page:polymarket:fn50