Citation

Polymarket - Footnote 52

partial90% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The study was submitted on August 5, 2025, so the estimated arbitrage profits could not have been extracted between April 2024 and April 2025. The study estimates 40 million USD of profit extracted, not approximately $40 million.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

arxiv.org/abs/2508.03474(1 check)

partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: A study titled "Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets" identified two distinct arbitrage forms: Market Rebalancing Arbitrage (within single markets) and Combinatorial A…

Note: The study was submitted on August 5, 2025, so the estimated arbitrage profits could not have been extracted between April 2024 and April 2025. The study estimates 40 million USD of profit extracted, not approximately $40 million.

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