Citation

Samotsvety - Footnote 15

contradicted70% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

WRONG NUMBERS: The claim states '28% by 2030, 60% by 2050, 89% by 2100' for transformative AI timelines, but the source only provides a figure of 81% by 2100. WRONG NUMBERS: The claim states 'Throughout 2023-2024', but the source is dated later than this. MISLEADING PARAPHRASE: The claim mentions 'influential AI risk forecasts', which is a subjective assessment not directly supported by the source. The source presents the forecasts without explicitly labeling them as 'influential'. FABRICATED DETAILS: The claim includes specific timelines for transformative AI (28% by 2030, 60% by 2050) that are not found in the source.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.foxy-scout.com/samotsvetys-ai-risk-forecasts/(1 check)

contradicted70%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: Throughout 2023-2024, the group released influential AI risk forecasts, including timelines for transformative AI (28% by 2030, 60% by 2050, 89% by 2100) and estimates of misaligned AI takeover (25% b…

Note: WRONG NUMBERS: The claim states '28% by 2030, 60% by 2050, 89% by 2100' for transformative AI timelines, but the source only provides a figure of 81% by 2100. WRONG NUMBERS: The claim states 'Throughout 2023-2024', but the source is dated later than this. MISLEADING PARAPHRASE: The claim mentions 'influential AI risk forecasts', which is a subjective assessment not directly supported by the source. The source presents the forecasts without explicitly labeling them as 'influential'. FABRICATED DETAILS: The claim includes specific timelines for transformative AI (28% by 2030, 60% by 2050) that are not found in the source.

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