Citation

Samotsvety - Footnote 27

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The source does not explicitly state that the shift to inside-view models 'shortened their estimated timelines compared to earlier reports.' It only mentions that inside-view models generally predict shorter timelines. The source does not provide an exact '81% chance of TAI by 2100 when accounting for the possibility of civilization-ending catastrophes before TAI development.' The highest probability of TAI by 2100 listed in the document is 97% from Ajeya Cotra's forecast.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

epoch.ai/blog/literature-review-of-transformative-artificial-intelligence-timelines(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: The group's methodology shifted from outside-view reference class forecasting to inside-view models based on AI capabilities progress, which shortened their estimated timelines compared to earlier rep…

Note: The source does not explicitly state that the shift to inside-view models 'shortened their estimated timelines compared to earlier reports.' It only mentions that inside-view models generally predict shorter timelines. The source does not provide an exact '81% chance of TAI by 2100 when accounting for the possibility of civilization-ending catastrophes before TAI development.' The highest probability of TAI by 2100 listed in the document is 97% from Ajeya Cotra's forecast.

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