Citation

Samotsvety - Footnote 28

partial85% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 4/3/2026

The source does not mention the group's methodology shifting from outside-view reference class forecasting to inside-view models based on AI capabilities progress. The source refers to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and TAI (Transformative Artificial Intelligence), not TAI (Technological Artificial Intelligence).

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.foxy-scout.com/samotsvetys-ai-risk-forecasts/(1 check)

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: The group's methodology shifted from outside-view reference class forecasting to inside-view models based on AI capabilities progress, which shortened their estimated timelines compared to earlier rep…

Note: The source does not mention the group's methodology shifting from outside-view reference class forecasting to inside-view models based on AI capabilities progress. The source refers to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and TAI (Transformative Artificial Intelligence), not TAI (Technological Artificial Intelligence).

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