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Samotsvety - Footnote 31
confirmed100% confidence
1 evidence check
Last checked: 4/3/2026
Migrated from citation_quotes. Original verdict: accurate
Evidence — 1 source, 1 check
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022EA Funds(1 check)
confirmed100%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
Found: In March 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Samotsvety aggregated forecasts from eight members on nuclear escalation scenarios using beta prior and binomial likelihood modeling. The forecas…
Note: Migrated from citation_quotes accuracy check. Original verdict: accurate
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