Samotsvety - Footnote 33

Note: The source does not discuss the group's nuclear risk estimates tending to be lower than some external experts due to different assumptions about evacuation possibilities and their aggregation methodology emphasizing mutual assured destruction (MAD) principles and historical de-escalation patterns. The source does not contain an October 2022 update maintaining low escalation probabilities even as Russia crossed various "red lines," The source does not mention critics arguing this reflected overreliance on base rates and underestimation of tail risks.