Samotsvety - Footnote 34

Note: The claim mentions 'mutual assured destruction (MAD) principles and historical de-escalation patterns' as a reason for lower risk estimates. While the source mentions MAD principles and de-escalation, it doesn't explicitly link them as reasons for the group's lower risk estimates. The claim mentions 'critics argued this reflected overreliance on base rates and underestimation of tail risks.' The source mentions 'overreliance on certain base rates and underestimating Putin’s willingness to take major risks' but this is in the context of a forecaster reflecting on past errors, not necessarily a direct criticism of the October 2022 update.