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Samotsvety - Footnote 70

confirmed90% confidence

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Last checked: 4/3/2026

Migrated from citation_quotes. Original verdict: accurate

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

samotsvety.org/blog/2022/03/10/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022/(1 check)

confirmed90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

Found: Some nuclear experts and forecasters criticized Samotsvety's March 2022 nuclear risk estimates as too low, arguing they reflected overreliance on base rates and underestimated tail risks like Putin's …

Note: Migrated from citation_quotes accuracy check. Original verdict: accurate

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