Fact

Institute for AI Policy and Strategy — publication: Countering AI Chip Smuggling (June 2025, joint with CNAS) — estimates 10,000 to several hundred thousand chips smuggled to China in 2024

confirmed95% confidence

1 evidence check

Last checked: 3/31/2026

The source text directly confirms the claim's estimate range of '10,000 to several hundred thousand chips smuggled to China in 2024'. The publication is from CNAS (Council on New American Security), and while the claim attributes it to 'Institute for AI Policy and Strategy' jointly with CNAS, the source URL is from CNAS and the content matches. The date reference 'as of 2025-06' aligns with the source material discussing 2024 data. The specific numerical range in the claim matches exactly what the source states in its final paragraph.

Evidence — 1 source, 1 check

www.cnas.org/publications/reports/countering-ai-chip-smuggling-has-become-a-national-security-priority(1 check)

confirmed95%primaryHaiku 4.5 · 3/31/2026

Found: The authors estimate the total scale of AI chip smuggling to the PRC in 2024 could have ranged anywhere from 10,000 to several hundred thousand chips, with a median estimate of around 140,000.

Note: The source text directly confirms the claim's estimate range of '10,000 to several hundred thousand chips smuggled to China in 2024'. The publication is from CNAS (Council on New American Security), and while the claim attributes it to 'Institute for AI Policy and Strategy' jointly with CNAS, the source URL is from CNAS and the content matches. The date reference 'as of 2025-06' aligns with the source material discussing 2024 data. The specific numerical range in the claim matches exactly what the source states in its final paragraph.

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Record type: fact

Record ID: f_iVF9GF7DNC