Grant·SD05d2_X3G·Record·Profile

Grant: Good Judgment Inc. — Forecasting Review on Power-Seeking AI (Coefficient Giving → Good Judgment (Forecasting))

Verdictconfirmed95%

1 check · 4/3/2026

Deterministic match: grantee, amount, date matched in source snapshot (2714 rows)

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Grantee: Good Judgment (Forecasting)
Name: Good Judgment Inc. — Forecasting Review on Power-Seeking AI
Amount: $231,000
Currency: USD
Date: January 2023
Source: https://coefficientgiving.org/funds/
Notes: [Forecasting] Open Philanthropy recommended a contract of $231,000 with Good Judgment Inc. to support a review by “superforecasters” (people with a strong track record of making accurate predictions) of Open Philanthropy research analyst Joe Carlsmith’s report on whether power-se… expand
[Forecasting] Open Philanthropy recommended a contract of $231,000 with Good Judgment Inc. to support a review by “superforecasters” (people with a strong track record of making accurate predictions) of Open Philanthropy research analyst Joe Carlsmith’s report on whether power-seeking AI is an existential risk. The report includes Carlsmith’s predictions on a number of questions; the reviewers will make their own predictions for those questions. The reviewers were also commissioned to make predictions on when Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will be developed and on how likely it is that AGI will cause humanity's extinction or permanently curtail humanity's potential. This follows our March 2020 contract. This project was supported through a contractor agreement. While we typically do not publish pages for contractor agreements, we occasionally opt to do so. Update, 10/19/23: The review has now been published.

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confirmed95%deterministic-row-match · 4/3/2026

NoteDeterministic match: grantee, amount, date matched in source snapshot (2714 rows)

Case № SD05d2_X3GFiled 4/3/2026Confidence 95%