Index
Citation·page:good-judgment:fn75
Good Judgment (Forecasting) - Footnote 75
Verdictpartial90%
1 check · 4/29/20261 → partial
Our claim
entire recordNo record data available.
Source evidence
1 src · 1 checkforum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/W94KjunX3hXAtZvXJ/evidence-on-good-forecasting-practices-from-the-good-1resource
partial90%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026
NoteThe claim states that superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%, but the source says teams of superforecasters outperformed prediction markets by 15-30%. The claim states that superforecasters outperformed intelligence analysts by 25-30%, but the source says that the Good Judgment Project outperformed a prediction market inside the intelligence community by 25-30%.
Case № page:good-judgment:fn75Filed 4/29/2026Confidence 90%