Philip Tetlock - Footnote 38

NoteThe source does not explicitly state that superforecasters were 'approximately 60-85% more accurate than average forecasters'. It only mentions that they are 'far more accurate than I would have ever supposed possible'. The source does not explicitly state that superforecasters demonstrated the ability to distinguish '10-15 degrees of uncertainty'. It does mention that they are skillful at 'finding information, synthesizing it, and applying it, and then updating the response to new information.'