Citation·page:samotsvety:fn19

Samotsvety - Footnote 19

Verdictpartial85%

2 checks · 1 src · 4/29/2026

2 → partial

Our claim

entire record

No record data available.

Source evidence

1 src · 2 checks

alethios.substack.com/p/with-nuno-sempere-superforecasting

partial80%citation-accuracy-check · 4/20/2026

NoteThe source does not mention the specific probabilities published by Samotsvety in October 2024. The source does not mention that the catastrophes would cause >1 million direct deaths within the next decade. The source states that Nuño Sempere is a founding member of Samotsvety, not co-founder.

partial85%Haiku 4.5 · 4/3/2026

NoteThe source is from July 11, 2025, not October 2024. The source does not mention the probabilities being from seven forecasters.

Case № page:samotsvety:fn19Filed 4/29/2026Confidence 83%