Samotsvety - Footnote 28

NoteThe source does not mention a shift in methodology from outside-view reference class forecasting to inside-view models based on AI capabilities progress. The source does not mention that the group shortened their estimated timelines compared to earlier reports. The source does not mention that the 81% chance of TAI by 2100 is when accounting for the possibility of civilization-ending catastrophes before TAI development, but rather barring pre-TAI catastrophe.

NoteThe source does not mention the group's methodology shifting from outside-view reference class forecasting to inside-view models based on AI capabilities progress. The source refers to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and TAI (Transformative Artificial Intelligence), not TAI (Technological Artificial Intelligence).