Samotsvety - Footnote 33

NoteThe provided source does not contain any information about the group's nuclear risk estimates, external experts' opinions, evacuation possibilities, aggregation methodology, mutual assured destruction (MAD) principles, historical de-escalation patterns, October 2022 update, Russia crossing 'red lines,' overreliance on base rates, or underestimation of tail risks.

NoteThe source does not discuss the group's nuclear risk estimates tending to be lower than some external experts due to different assumptions about evacuation possibilities and their aggregation methodology emphasizing mutual assured destruction (MAD) principles and historical de-escalation patterns. The source does not contain an October 2022 update maintaining low escalation probabilities even as Russia crossed various "red lines," The source does not mention critics arguing this reflected overreliance on base rates and underestimation of tail risks.