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RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)

Verdictconfirmed95%
1 check · 4/29/2026

1 → confirmed

Our claim

entire record
Slug
rand-forecasting
Name
RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)
Division Type
program-area
Status
active
Notes
Crowdsourced forecasts including superforecasters on AI timelines and geopolitical AI developments.

Source evidence

1 src · 1 check
confirmed95%Haiku 4.5 · 4/24/2026

NoteAll three key fields are confirmed by the source: (1) Name 'RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)' is explicitly stated in the page title and throughout; (2) Type 'program-area' is appropriate as RFI is described as a program/initiative within RAND's organizational structure under 'RAND Global and Emerging Risks'; (3) Status 'active' is confirmed by the present-tense description of ongoing operations, current leadership, active recruitment of forecasters, and recent dated content (Dec 2025, Feb 2025, etc.). The source is a current webpage (archived March 11, 2026) describing RFI's active operations.

Case № iBFEUcKCAOFiled 4/29/2026Confidence 95%
Source Check: RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) | Longterm Wiki