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Philip Tetlock @ Good Judgment (Forecasting)

Verdictconfirmed98%
2 checks · 1 src · 4/29/2026

1 → partial; dissent: 1 → confirmed

Our claim

entire record
Role
Co-Founder
Role Type
key-person
Is Founder
Yes
Notes
Philip E. Tetlock co-founded Good Judgment Inc to provide forecasting services; also known for founding the Good Judgment Project (IARPA) with Barbara Mellers. Confirmed on Wikipedia and Good Judgment website as of 2026-04-16.

Source evidence

1 src · 2 checks
confirmed98%Haiku 4.5 · 4/27/2026

NoteRe-check. Previous verdict: partial. Verdict changed.

partial95%qua650-retro-scan-subject-identity · 4/21/2026

NoteQUA-650 retro-scan: The claim is about 'Good Judgment (Forecasting)' while the source is about 'The Good Judgment Project.' Per QUA-648, these are similarly-named-but-different organizations: The Good Judgment Project is the original research project, while Good Judgment Inc. (the commercial entity that could be referred to as 'Good Judgment (Forecasting)') is explicitly described as a separate spin-off that started in July 2015. The source does not primarily address the commercial forecasting entity.

Case № iflt8Anj3OFiled 4/29/2026Confidence 95%
Source Check: Philip Tetlock @ Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Longterm Wiki