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A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold

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Source Tablegrants
Source IDUt0hR2ZIWi
Descriptionto Will Howard, USD 10890.93, 2023-02-25
Source URLmanifund.org/projects/a-tool-for-making-well-sized-kelly-optimal-bets-on-manifold
ParentManifund
Children
CreatedMar 12, 2026, 4:59 PM
UpdatedMar 14, 2026, 6:22 AM
SyncedMar 12, 2026, 4:59 PM

Record Data

idUt0hR2ZIWi
organizationIdManifund(organization)
granteeIdWill Howard
orgEntityIdManifund(organization)
orgDisplayName
granteeEntityId
granteeDisplayNameWill Howard
nameA tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold
amount10890.93
currencyUSD
period
date2023-02-25
status
sourcemanifund.org/projects/a-tool-for-making-well-sized-kelly-optimal-bets-on-manifol…
notes[ACX mini-grants, Forecasting] Instead of saying "I want to bet $X on this market" you will say "I think the true probability is Y%", and it will tell you how much to bet
programId8jnn54YEbQ
dataSourceId

Source Check Verdicts

unverifiable95% confidence

Last checked: 4/29/2026

1 → unverifiable

Debug info

Thing ID: Ut0hR2ZIWi

Source Table: grants

Source ID: Ut0hR2ZIWi

Parent Thing ID: sid_fFVOuFZCRf