Metadata
| Source Table | resources |
| Source ID | c7b435dfad2f7ca2 |
| Description | Documents the track record and performance history of Samotsvety, a high-performing forecasting team that has achieved top rankings in prediction competitions including INFER and Good Judgment Open. Provides evidence of the team's calibration and predictive accuracy across diverse domains, including… |
| Source URL | samotsvety.org/track-record/ |
| Children | — |
| Created | Feb 21, 2026, 3:56 PM |
| Updated | Oct 4, 2026, 2:03 AM |
| Synced | — |
Record Data
id | c7b435dfad2f7ca2 |
url | samotsvety.org/track-record/ |
title | Samotsvety Track Record |
type | web |
summary | Documents the track record and performance history of Samotsvety, a high-performing forecasting team that has achieved top rankings in prediction competitions including INFER and Good Judgment Open. Provides evidence of the team's calibration and predictive accuracy across diverse domains, including… |
review | The Samotsvety Forecasting team represents a remarkable collective of probabilistic reasoning experts who have distinguished themselves through consistently superior forecasting performance. Their track record spans multiple platforms like INFER, Good Judgment Open, and Metaculus, where they've repe… |
abstract | — |
keyPoints | [ "Samotsvety has consistently ranked among top performers in major forecasting tournaments including INFER and Good Judgment Open", "Individual team members have demonstrated exceptional predictive capabilities in competitive forecasting environments", "The track record provides credibility f… |
publicationId | — |
authors | — |
authorEntityIds | — |
publishedDate | — |
tags | [ "evaluation", "ai-safety", "existential-risk", "governance", "policy" ] |
localFilename | c7b435dfad2f7ca2.txt |
credibilityOverride | — |
fetchedAt | Dec 28, 2025, 2:03 AM |
contentHash | — |
stableId | sid_JArvEbno2v |
fetchStatus | ok |
lastFetchedAt | Oct 4, 2026, 2:03 AM |
archiveUrl | — |
stance | — |
contextNote | Samotsvety is a prominent forecasting group whose probability estimates on AI timelines and risks are frequently cited in AI safety discussions; this page documents their competitive track record, providing context for assessing the credibility of their forecasts. |
resourcePurpose | reference |
resourceSubtype | organizational_report |
typeMetadata | — |
publisherEntityId | — |
relatedEntityIds | — |
enrichmentStatus | enriched |
enrichmentDate | Apr 2, 2026, 7:07 PM |
importanceScore | 0.38 |
contentLifecycle | — |
Debug info
Thing ID: sid_JArvEbno2v
Source Table: resources
Source ID: c7b435dfad2f7ca2