AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

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  "summary": "Quarterly competition (Q2 2025: 348 questions, 54 bot-makers, \\$30K prizes) comparing human Pro Forecasters against AI bots, with statistical testing showing humans maintain significant lead (p=0.00001) though AI improves ~24% Q3-Q4 2024. Best AI baseline is OpenAI's o3; top bot-makers are students/hobbyists; ensemble methods significantly improve performance.",
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