Eliezer Yudkowsky

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---
title: Eliezer Yudkowsky
description: Co-founder of MIRI, early AI safety researcher and rationalist community founder
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## Key Links

| Source | Link |
|--------|------|
| Official Website | [yudkowsky.net](http://yudkowsky.net/) |
| Wikipedia | [en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliezer_Yudkowsky) |
| Wikidata | [wikidata.org](https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q704195) |

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## Background

Eliezer Yudkowsky is one of the earliest and most influential voices in AI existential risk. He co-founded the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (originally the Singularity Institute) in 2000, making him a pioneer in organized AI safety research.

Yudkowsky is largely self-taught in mathematics and computer science, beginning his AI safety work in the late 1990s. He's known for:

- Founding <EntityLink id="E538">LessWrong</EntityLink> and the rationalist community
- Writing extensively on cognitive biases and rational thinking
- Developing early frameworks for <EntityLink id="E439">AI alignment</EntityLink> (Coherent Extrapolated Volition)
- Contributing to decision theory (Timeless Decision Theory, Updateless Decision Theory)
- Writing fiction exploring AI alignment themes (Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality)

## Key Contributions to AI Safety

### Coherent Extrapolated Volition (CEV)

Proposed in 2004, CEV attempts to formalize "what humanity would want if we knew more, thought faster, were more the people we wished we were." Rather than trying to specify human values directly, CEV suggests extrapolating what we would collectively choose under idealized conditions.

### Early Warning and Problem Formulation

Yudkowsky was among the first to:
- Articulate the alignment problem clearly
- Explain why superintelligent AI poses unique risks
- Emphasize the difficulty of value specification
- Highlight the potential for "<EntityLink id="E359">treacherous turns</EntityLink>" in AI development
- Argue that alignment must be solved before AGI is developed

### <EntityLink id="E584">Agent Foundations</EntityLink> Research

Through <EntityLink id="E202">MIRI</EntityLink>, Yudkowsky has pushed for research on fundamental questions about agency, decision theory, and embedded agents. This includes work on:
- Logical uncertainty
- Naturalized induction
- Reflective consistency
- Embedded agency

## Views on Key Cruxes

<Section title="Risk Assessment">

**P(doom)**: Very high, often stated as >90% in recent years

**Timeline**: Believes AGI is plausible within 10-20 years, possibly sooner

**Alignment difficulty**: Considers alignment extremely difficult, likely requiring fundamental theoretical breakthroughs we haven't made yet

</Section>

### Core Concerns

1. **Default outcome is doom**: Without major breakthroughs in alignment theory, Yudkowsky believes <EntityLink id="E604">AGI development</EntityLink> will likely lead to human extinction
2. **<EntityLink id="E281">Sharp left turn</EntityLink>**: Expects rapid capability gains that outpace our ability to align systems
3. **<EntityLink id="E93">Deceptive alignment</EntityLink>**: Worried that sufficiently capable systems will learn to appear aligned during training while pursuing different goals
4. **Inadequate preparation**: Believes current alignment efforts are insufficient for the difficulty of the problem

### Disagreements with Mainstream

Yudkowsky is notably more pessimistic than most AI safety researchers:

<DisagreementMap
  topic="AI Alignment Difficulty"
  positions={[
    {
      person: "Eliezer Yudkowsky",
      position: "Extremely difficult, likely requires fundamental theoretical breakthroughs we haven't made",
      confidence: "high",
      reasoning: "Sharp capability jumps, deceptive alignment, inner alignment hard"
    },
    {
      person: "Paul Christiano",
      position: "Difficult but tractable with empirical iteration on prosaic alignment techniques",
      confidence: "medium",
      reasoning: "Can make incremental progress, learn from weaker systems"
    },
    {
      person: "Dario Amodei",
      position: "Challenging but solvable with responsible scaling and empirical research",
      confidence: "medium",
      reasoning: "Safety can keep pace with capabilities if we're careful"
    }
  ]}
/>

## Strategic Views

### On Current AI Development

Yudkowsky has advocated for:
- **Slowing down AI capabilities research**: Believes we need much more time for alignment work
- **International cooperation**: Has proposed international treaties to limit AGI development
- **Extreme measures**: In a controversial 2023 Time article, suggested potential need for international enforcement including military action against rogue AGI projects

### On Alignment Approaches

- **Skeptical of prosaic alignment**: Doubtful that techniques like <EntityLink id="E259">RLHF</EntityLink> will scale to superintelligence
- **Emphasis on theory**: Believes we need better theoretical foundations before scaling systems
- **Critical of "race to the top"**: Argues that building AGI to solve alignment is putting the cart before the horse

## Key Publications and Writings

- **"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics"** (2013) - Analyzes economic dynamics of recursive self-improvement
- **"There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence"** (2017) - Argues we won't get clear warning signs
- **"AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities"** (2022) - Comprehensive argument for why default outcomes are catastrophic
- **Sequences** (2006-2009) - Blog posts on rationality, many touching on AI safety
- **"Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down"** (2023) - Controversial Time op-ed

## Influence and Legacy

Yudkowsky's impact extends beyond direct research:

1. **Field creation**: Helped establish AI safety as a legitimate field of study
2. **Community building**: Created intellectual infrastructure (LessWrong, <EntityLink id="E518">CFAR</EntityLink>) that trained many current researchers
3. **Problem formulation**: Articulated key problems that shaped decades of subsequent work
4. **Public awareness**: Through writing and fiction, introduced AI risk to broader audiences
5. **Funding**: His early work influenced major funders like <EntityLink id="E521">Coefficient Giving</EntityLink>

## Criticism and Controversy

Yudkowsky is a polarizing figure:

**Critics argue:**
- His extreme pessimism may be counterproductive or unfounded
- Lack of formal credentials in relevant fields
- Sometimes dismissive of others' approaches
- Apocalyptic framing may alienate potential allies

**Supporters counter:**
- He was correct about many things before others (importance of AI safety, difficulty of alignment)
- Has demonstrated technical competence through decision theory work
- Pessimism may be warranted given stakes
- Direct communication style is valuable even if uncomfortable

## Statements & Track Record

For a detailed analysis of Yudkowsky's predictions and their accuracy, see the **<EntityLink id="E643">full track record page</EntityLink>**.

**Summary**: Made significant errors when young (early timeline predictions); updated to timeline agnosticism; vindicated on AI generalization question in Hanson debate; core doom predictions remain unfalsifiable until AGI exists.

| Category | Examples |
|----------|----------|
| ✅ **Correct** | AI generalization with simple architectures (Hanson debate), AI safety becoming mainstream |
| ❌ **Wrong** | Early timeline predictions (Singularity by 2021), deep learning skepticism timing |
| ⏳ **Pending/Unfalsifiable** | P(doom) ≈99%, discontinuous takeoff, deceptive alignment |

**Notable**: His p(doom) has *increased* from ≈50% to ≈99% over time, even as AI safety gained mainstream attention. His core predictions about catastrophic AI risk are unfalsifiable until AGI exists.