Longterm Wiki

Long-term Trajectory

long-term-trajectory (E194)
← Back to pagePath: /ai-transition-model/long-term-trajectory/
Page Metadata
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Entity Data
{
  "id": "long-term-trajectory",
  "type": "ai-transition-model-scenario",
  "title": "Long-term Trajectory",
  "description": "The quality of humanity's long-term future given successful AI transition—measuring human flourishing, autonomy preservation, and value realization across civilizational timescales.",
  "tags": [
    "ai-transition-model",
    "outcome",
    "long-term",
    "flourishing"
  ],
  "relatedEntries": [
    {
      "id": "civilizational-competence",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-factor",
      "relationship": "driver"
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-ownership",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-factor",
      "relationship": "driver"
    },
    {
      "id": "long-term-lockin",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-scenario",
      "relationship": "sub-scenario"
    },
    {
      "id": "human-agency",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-parameter",
      "relationship": "key-factor"
    },
    {
      "id": "preference-authenticity",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-parameter",
      "relationship": "key-factor"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [],
  "lastUpdated": "2026-01",
  "customFields": [
    {
      "label": "Model Role",
      "value": "Ultimate Outcome"
    },
    {
      "label": "Primary Drivers",
      "value": "Civilizational Competence, AI Ownership"
    },
    {
      "label": "Risk Character",
      "value": "Gradual degradation, potentially reversible"
    }
  ]
}
Canonical Facts (0)

No facts for this entity

External Links
{
  "eaForum": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/longtermism",
  "eightyK": "https://80000hours.org/articles/future-generations/"
}
Backlinks (3)
idtitletyperelationship
ai-ownershipAI Ownershipai-transition-model-factordrives
civilizational-competenceCivilizational Competenceai-transition-model-factordrives
long-term-lockinLong-term Lock-inai-transition-model-scenariocontributes-to
Frontmatter
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  "title": "Long-term Trajectory",
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Raw MDX Source
---
title: Long-term Trajectory
sidebar:
  order: 2
importance: 0
quality: 0
llmSummary: This page contains only a React component reference with no actual content loaded. Cannot assess substance as no text, analysis, or information is present.
ratings:
  novelty: 0
  rigor: 0
  actionability: 0
  completeness: 0
clusters:
  - ai-safety
subcategory: outcomes
---
import {TransitionModelContent} from '@components/wiki/TransitionModelContent';

<TransitionModelContent entityId="E333" />